What is happening in Russia?
The Wagner mutiny has made clear to the world: Russia's would-be emperor has no clothes, and the Russian people might be ready to acknowledge that.
Yesterday, the world was transfixed by an almost unthinkable series of events: The Russian Federation—ruled by an uncompromising and increasingly extremist authoritarian regime—was invaded by mercenaries in its own employ who vowed to advance on Moscow and topple the military leadership. Some reports suggested there were calls for “a new president”.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious leader of the mercenary militia known as the Wagner Group, said the Russian military had bombed his camp and killed a large number of his fighters, inside Ukraine. Even though he claimed throughout that his goal was not to topple Vladimir Putin himself, the mutiny clearly wounded Putin’s aura of invincibility more than any other event in the 23 years since he came to power.
To many, it appears that was the point: to demonstrate that there is no absolute power in Russia. And so Saturday, June 24, 2023, will be remembered as a day of strange hope—when pacifists and human rights activists around the world found themselves cheering on a professional war criminal.
The mutineers seized the city of Rostov-on-Don, and its critical military hub, which is used to command Russian operations inside Ukraine. To the astonishment of many, they were greeted with cheers and celebration by locals, who apparently do not feel love for Putin’s regime. This sent an unmistakable signal both inside and outside Russia: the regime is an illusion; its professed popularity an artful construction.
Once the headlines buzzed across smart phones across the world with some version of the story—Wagner mercenaries invade Russia, march on Moscow… Putin declares state of emergency amid armed revolt, etc.—speculation proliferated:
Is this a planned coup with sympathizers at the very top?
What will happen to Russia’s nuclear weapons?
Is there a role for the international community in stabilizing Russia if the regime falls?
Where is Vladimir Putin, who appears to have fled the capital?
Memes circulated globally contrasting Putin’s apparent disappearance with Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s refusal to leave Kyiv as Russian forces advanced on the Ukrainian capital in the early days of the invasion. Putin, in what many describe as his weakest moment, gave a short, blunt, angry speech in which he recognized the rebellion and seemed insecure about whether he had full control of the military and the government.
There were skirmishes. Wagner fighters shot down as many as a dozen Russian military aircraft. The Russian Air Force reportedly destroyed military assets and civilian infrastructure, to slow Wagner’s advance Moscow.
For a few hours, there was hope that one of the world’s most evil regimes would be dissolved. There was talk of how Prigozhin, a war criminal, could not ever be considered legitimate, and so would have overwhelming incentive to make a deal, whereby he would hand over power to an interim government and cooperate with war crimes investigators in exchange for disarmament and no jail time.
Then, suddenly, it was over. The Belarusian dictator, who only that morning had been reported to have fled his country amid calls for his ouster, announced he had brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin. The mutiny would end, and Wagner mercenaries would return to their camps in Ukraine, in exchange for amnesty from prosecution for rebellion and treason.
This improbable end to a military standoff between two violent absolutists, both known for an obsession with exterminating their enemies, has only raised more questions. Many believe the Wagner mutiny might only be the first move in a complicated struggle for power, in which most of the players now agree a post-Putin period is imminent.
The brokered cessation of hostilities also provides evidence that Putin himself now understands his violent repression of the Russian people may have reached the end of its usefulness. Further violent repression will be seen for what it is, even by the most propagandized loyalists—a sign of weakness, desperation, and anti-patriotism, and cause for his eventual removal.